The Energiewende "reality check" and the ten-point plan
An external review of the energy transition, commissioned by her ministry, became the programme for most of what followed.
Context Germany entered 2025 with renewables supplying more than half of its electricity consumption (54.4 per cent in 2024), with a legal target of 80 per cent by 2030 and with electricity prices for business among the highest in the EU. Planning for grids and generation rested on an assumed 2030 demand of 750 TWh. In May 2025 Reiche announced a "Realitätscheck" (reality check) of these assumptions.
Objective To test whether the build-out of renewables, grids and backup capacity matched realistic demand, and to bring down system costs.
Policy / action On 15 September 2025 she presented the monitoring report Energiewende.Effizient.Machen, about 260 pages written by the Energiewirtschaftliches Institut (EWI) at the University of Cologne and BET Consulting. It put 2030 demand at 600–700 TWh. Reiche said the ministry expected it to be "eher am unteren Ende" (rather at the lower end), but kept the 80 per cent target. Alongside the report she published a ten-point plan. The plan aligns renewables and grids with the lower demand range and ends fixed feed-in tariffs and payments at negative prices in favour of two-sided contracts for difference. It calls for a technology-neutral capacity market, starting with hydrogen-ready gas plants, a faster smart-meter rollout, cuts to subsidy programmes, a more "pragmatic" hydrogen ramp-up, and CCS/CCU as a climate technology.
"The expansion of renewable energy is undoubtedly a great success – almost 60 percent of our electricity already comes from wind, sun and co."
„Der Ausbau der Erneuerbaren Energien ist zweifellos ein großer Erfolg – heute stammen schon fast 60 Prozent unseres Stroms aus Wind, Sonne und Co."
- Her role
- Commissioned the report as minister, presented it and authored the accompanying ten-point plan
- Authors
- EWI (University of Cologne), BET Consulting
- Stakeholders
- BDEW, BDI, BEE, renewables and solar industry, Greens, Deutsche Umwelthilfe, Greenpeace, WindEurope
- Key figure
- 600–700 TWh demand in 2030, against a planning assumption of 750 TWh
Result
The ten points became the agenda for the next year: the capacity law (case 02), the EEG reform (04), the CCS law (06) and a shift in hydrogen policy, in which the ministry said it would drop the fixed 10 GW electrolysis target for 2030.
Public reaction
The energy industry association BDEW called it "ein überzeugender Aufschlag" (a convincing start). The industry federation BDI spoke of a "notwendige, vorbehaltlose Bestandsaufnahme" (a necessary, unreserved stocktake). Simone Peter of the renewables federation BEE called the analysis "intensive, stimmige und substanzielle" (thorough, coherent and substantial).
Criticism
Before publication, Deutsche Umwelthilfe warned that the scope would underestimate demand, and the Green MP Sven Giegold accused her of calling renewable expansion overblown. In late September 2025 several outlets reported that parts of the plan overlapped, partly word for word, with RWE and E.ON position papers. In December 2025 Greenpeace alleged 28 changes between the experts' draft and the published report. See Controversies.
Note on the figure
Analysis Her "almost 60 per cent" matches the share of electricity fed into the grid (59.4 per cent in 2024, Destatis), not the share of gross consumption (54.4 per cent in 2024, 55.1 per cent in 2025). The two measures are not interchangeable.
Long-term significance
Analysis The report re-based German energy planning on lower demand and on cost. Supporters see a correction of over-optimistic electrification forecasts. Critics see a justification for slowing renewables. If demand later outruns the lower range, the grid and generation plans built on it will need revision.